Dark clouds hang over Middle East despite ceasefire optimism

World

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has been agreed, to celebrations in Lebanon but scepticism in Israel.

Lebanese people are finally looking forward to some calm after months of heavy bombardment in the capital Beirut and across the country.

An estimated 1.2 million people have been displaced and many towns and villages heavily damaged.

Middle East latest: Israel and Lebanon agree ceasefire

But a snap poll for one Israeli news channel found only 37% of Israelis in favour of the deal.

Not everyone in the Israeli cabinet was supportive of the deal, either.

Itamar Ben-Gvir describes it as “a historic mistake” but didn’t threaten to withdraw his party from government. He was the one person who voted against the truce.

More on Hezbollah

So what have those critics extracted from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in return for their support?

Some have recently been pushing for Israeli occupation of Gaza or annexation of the West Bank.

The concern in Israel largely centres on enforcement and doubts that Hezbollah will stay true to the terms of the deal.

Netanyahu says Israel will strike Hezbollah the moment they show any attempt to rearm or regroup in southern Lebanon, but his willingness to do this deal suggests he is ready to move on from this particular war.

So with little public support, especially among many of his own base, why now?

Well, Netanyahu was honest in his televised statement when he said that the IDF needed to regroup and rearm – fighting on multiple fronts for more than a year has taken its toll especially among the thousands of reserve soldiers they rely on.

Israeli PM to propose ceasefire deal to cabinet
Image:
Netanyahu speaking on the day the ceasefire was announced

He is also under pressure from the incoming president-elect Donald Trump to wrap up the wars and agreeing this ceasefire was more straightforward than negotiations with Hamas in Gaza.

President Biden spoke of renewed efforts to get a ceasefire in Gaza, and there is hope Hamas will now feel isolated and forced to do a deal.

But the situation in Gaza is far more complex, with the lives of hostages at stake, Hamas’s leaders remain determined to fight and Israel’s plans for the Strip unknown.

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Israeli warplanes fly over Dahiyeh, in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Image:
Israeli warplanes fly over Beirut on the day the ceasefire was announced. Pic: AP/Bilal Hussein.

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is a significant moment, it should and will be welcomed around the world, and it might be enough to calm Iran and the Iraqi militias.

As long as the hostages remain in Gaza however, and the humanitarian crisis there worsens with the onset of winter rains and lack of aid, the dark clouds will continue to hang over the Middle East.

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