The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has admitted efforts to overhaul unreliable data on Britain’s jobs market may not be ready until 2027.
The ONS confirmed it is now “unlikely” it will be able to introduce a revamped version of its Labour Force Survey (LFS) – which is the official measure of employment and unemployment in the UK – by mid-2025, leaving policymakers in the dark over the true state of the UK workforce.
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Governor of the Bank Andrew Bailey said it was “a substantial problem” that the exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.
While the labour market is going to be “the key” to future rate cuts, another member of the interest rate decider Professor Alan Taylor told the MPs of the Treasury Committee last month: “We don’t necessarily have the best statistics there.”
The government too has built policy around the belief that the UK has a high number of people out of work and not looking for work.
Just last week the government announced £240m for reforms to “get Britain working”.
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‘The benefits system can incentivise and disincentivise work’
But on the same day, the Bank’s chief economist said labour force participation “has now reached the point where participation is broadly in line with a natural level it should be”.
The UK had been thought to be an outlier compared to its neighbours in that the number of people in work is lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Respected thinktank the Resolution Foundation had also said that there was no rise in inactivity based on HM Revenue & Customs data and that employment had been underestimated by 930,000 since 2019.
Also revised due to changes in population is the employment estimate, which is 0.1% higher than first thought, the ONS said.
The ONS said it continued “to advise caution when interpreting changes” in things like unemployment and economic inactivity.
More than a year ago in October 2023, the ONS temporarily suspended publication of its official labour force survey due to low response rates after the pandemic and began releasing experimental estimates that relied on tax and other data sources.