Wyshynski: Judging NHL overreactions after the first week, from John Tortorella’s success to Avalanche ‘struggles’

The opening of the NHL season is fertile ground for overreactions.

Look at the Toronto Maple Leafs. Head coach Sheldon Keefe overreacted to his team losing at home to the pride of ASU, the Arizona Coyotes, by calling out his elite players: “That’s the way it goes when those guys don’t make the difference that they can.”

He then overreacted to his own overreaction by walking back those comments after they became “a thing,” as they often do in Toronto. “I used some of the wrong words,” Keefe said, in the sense that he said them out loud.

Such is the start of the season. Proclamations are made and then quickly regretted. Hot takes are blast-chilled.

Just over a week into the 2022-23 NHL regular season, here are 10 first impressions that we judge to be absolutely delusional or harbingers of things to come.

John Tortorella will win the Jack Adams

Philadelphia sports are having a moment. The Phillies are nearing the World Series. The Eagles are undefeated. The Sixers don’t have Ben Simmons anymore.

And it turns out the Flyers might not be the pushover joke of a team many expected they would be this season, thanks to the coaching of John Tortorella, who has led them to an impressive 3-0-0 start.

The verdict: MODERATE OVERREACTION. This is why the Flyers plucked Tortorella from the ESPN studios: to make the team harder to play against. They’re delivering more hits and blocking more shots than they did last season. The Tortorella effect has bolstered Carter Hart‘s game, as he was third in the league in goals saved above expected (3.9) through three games. The Flyers are doing all of this without the services of Sean Couturier, who is trying to work back from an injury.

No one expects the Flyers to finish in a playoff seed, especially when they’re in the lower third of the league in shot attempt share and expected goals percentage. Then again, no one expected the Blue Jackets to improve by 32 points in the standings in Tortorella’s first full season in Columbus, when he won his second Jack Adams Award. It’s still not likely to happen, but if Philadelphia somehow makes the postseason with Torts behind the bench, there’s a high probability he makes it a Jack-Trick.

Goal-scoring will remain bonkers

One of the 2022-23 season’s great mysteries is whether last season’s goal-scoring explosion — 3.14 goals per team per game, the highest since 1995-96 — would carry over to this campaign. There were a number of unique factors that help drive that scoring, like COVID-related absences that impacted goaltenders, for example.

But through one week of the season, the NHL had a per-team per-game average of 3.30 goals.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the last time the NHL had a goals per-team per-game rate for October at 3.29 or better was 1993-94 (3.41). In fact, the scoring rate in the first month of the season dipped under 3.00 for the last two seasons, following three seasons where it averaged 3.06 goals per team per game.

So it’s not a given that this scoring trend will still be torrid by the end of the month. But keep in mind that last season’s goal-scoring bump was part of a larger trend that saw average goals in the NHL increase year over year five times in six seasons. As we reported last season, rule changes and roster construction and power-play dominance and a down cycle for goaltending have also contributed to the bump in goals.

Those trends haven’t been bucked, so it could be another parade of rubber into NHL nets this season.

The Colorado Avalanche are no longer Stanley Cup favorites

The Avs have looked human early on this season, winning two of their first three games but taking an L against the Calgary Flames, whom many consider Colorado’s toughest postseason competition.

Meanwhile in the Central Division, new head coach Peter DeBoer has the Dallas Stars rolling early and challenging for the division lead.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. They’re going to miss captain Gabriel Landeskog for potentially three months. Alexandar Georgiev and Pavel Francouz, arguably the most tenuous facet of this year’s Avs, are still solidifying as a tandem. Nathan MacKinnon (seven points in three games) is waiting for his supporting cast to join the party. They were underwater on expected goals percentage and just a shade over even on scoring attempts at 5-on-5.

But I’m not ready to knock the kings off the mountain. Not when they have the deepest defense corps in the NHL. Not when MacKinnon remains squarely in beast mode. They’re going to shake off the Stanley Cup hangover and get healthy.

And I trust GM Chris MacFarlane to go out and find the missing pieces — like, potentially, a second-line center to properly replace Nazem Kadri — that they might need at the trade deadline.

The Rangers have followed up their Eastern Conference finals appearance with an at-times dominant 3-1-0 start — with all three wins coming from Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin.

Meanwhile, on the opposite coast, the Los Angeles Kings are only 3-2-0 in their first five games, but look deeper and more dangerous than the team that lost in seven games to the Edmonton Oilers to open last season’s playoffs.

The verdict: SLIGHT OVERREACTION. Give credit to the Rangers. After they were rolled for most of last season analytically at even strength, New York is in the top 10 in shot attempt share and expected goals percentage. The addition of Vincent Trocheck at center has made them better. His linemate Artemi Panarin has been on another planet to start the season, with 10 points in four games.

They look like a team that got a taste and are ready for the main course, but there’s still room for improvement defensively.

The Kings are watching their young wave of talented players mature before their eyes, whether it’s Gabriel Vilardi leading the team in scoring or Quinton Byfield posting three assists in five games or Sean Durzi playing over 22 minutes per game. Their top line with Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe are all at or better than a point-per-game pace.

The goaltending has been inconsistent — and that’s putting it kindly — and their 5-on-5 defense needs to get a lot better. But L.A. has looked like a team that isn’t just seeking a second straight playoff berth, but potentially a Pacific Division banner.

The Tampa Bay Lightning aren’t off to their best start, but their captain is off to the races. Stamkos scored six goals in his first four games of the season to lead the NHL.

Stamkos, 32, last won the Rocket Richard in the 2011-12 season, when he hit 60 goals. He’s currently on pace for a very sustainable 123-goal season.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Stamkos netted 42 goals last season, which would have been a notable total were it not for the fact that 12 players matched or surpassed that total. In the end, Stammer finished 18 goals off the pace of Hart Trophy winner Auston Matthews.

What’s interesting about Stamkos so far is that while he’s gotten his looks on the Tampa power play, coach Jon Cooper has him in the middle of Alex Killorn and Nick Paul at even strength. That combination of Stamkos’ rocket shot with two grinders has gotten results. Maybe he has one more shot at the Rocket, too.

The Coyotes will not finish with the league’s worst record

Next summer’s NHL draft features forward Connor Bedard, who is being touted as the next generational talent to enter the league. Basically any team that isn’t within two points of the division lead two weeks into the season has someone in their fan base proclaiming, “Welp, might as well pack it in and tank for Connor Bedard.”

Which is a real insult to the teams that have meticulously built themselves into badness like the Arizona Coyotes, who entered Thursday night outside the NHL’s basement.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. Look, there are going to be some bad hockey teams this season. The Chicago Blackhawks are bad and will get worse if and when Patrick Kane is traded. The Columbus Blue Jackets have the East’s worst goal differential. The San Jose Sharks have entered the chat, losing their first five games despite a roster with familiar (and highly compensated!) names.

But none of these teams are the Coyotes, a team that GM Bill Armstrong has constructed to cost nothing (31st in cap hit) and lose frequently en route to hopefully winning the draft lottery. The best news for pro-tank Coyotes fans: They only play the Toronto Maple Leafs one more time.

Lindy Ruff will be the first coach fired

The New Jersey Devils won their first game of the season on Tuesday night, rallying to beat the Anaheim Ducks. But it was the second home game where chants of “Fire Lindy!” echoed through Prudential Center, as fans clamored for head coach Lindy Ruff to pay the price for another middling start — knowing that former Florida Panthers interim coach and Jack Adams finalist Andrew Brunette is standing next to him on the bench.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. The last two periods of that Devils game reinforced the complicated decision that would be firing Ruff. The team plays well according to the analytics and then gets subverted by terrible goaltending. Or is it Ruff’s system that leads to porous defense that accentuates the team’s struggles in goal?

It’s a conundrum. One could see the Devils making a coaching change 20 games into a bad start. But if the goaltending stabilizes, Ruff could be on more solid footing.

But mostly this is an overaction because there’s every chance that Ruff won’t be the first coach turfed. Not with the early-season stumbles for the Seattle Kraken and Anaheim Ducks, as well as the mounting pressure on Bruce Boudreau in Vancouver. Keep in mind Dallas Eakins and Boudreau weren’t hired by their respective general managers.

Last week I identified Vegas Golden Knights netminder Logan Thompson as my longshot Calder Trophy candidate because “‘rookie who steps up to save the season’ is a pretty stout narrative.”

Well, he’s 2-1 in three starts with a .938 save percentage and 2.8 goals saved above expected, good for fifth in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights look like a different team under coach Bruce Cassidy, as they were the NHL’s best offensive 5-on-5 club analytically through four games.

The verdict: SLIGHT OVERREACTION. If Thompson continues to thrive, he’s certainly going to get some rookie of the year attention. But winning the Calder is a tough gig for a netminder, as only one goalie has been named NHL rookie of the year in the salary cap era: Steve Mason of the Blue Jackets in 2008-09. Which is why some other rookies that are off to sterling starts like Kraken center Matty Beniers, Ducks center Mason McTavish and other skaters probably have the advantage over Thompson.

The Minnesota Wild have ruined their goaltending

The Wild opened the season with three straight losses as their goaltending posted an NHL-worst .813 team save percentage.

Marc-Andre Fleury started two of them and was pulled from his second start after giving up four goals on 14 shots to the Kings. Backup Filip Gustavsson gave up five goals to the Avalanche in his only start.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Fleury won the Vezina Trophy in 2020-21 with the Golden Knights thanks to a phenomenal 36-game campaign in the COVID pandemic-impacted season. It’s sandwiched by two seasons that weren’t exactly Vezina-worthy, but that were explained away by mitigating circumstances off the ice for Fleury. But he wasn’t good in the 2022 playoffs for Minnesota, and he’s not off to the best start this season.

The Wild’s decision to bring him back on a two-year deal led to Cam Talbot wanting out, which led to Minnesota trading him to Ottawa and getting Gustavsson. Even though Talbot’s out with an injury, it was a downgrade. Minnesota is a stacked team that thrived last season despite having the 17th best goaltending (.903) in the league, but they’re not even getting close to that right now. If this continues, how long before they chance it by throwing rookie Jesper Wallstedt at the problem?

Reports of the Boston Bruins‘ demise were exaggerated

The Bruins started the season without Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk due to injury. They had a new coach in Jim Montgomery. Patrice Bergeron was a year older. David Krejci, who didn’t play in the NHL last season, was called on as a 36-year-old reinforcement.

In the conversations about when the window for contention had closed for certain veteran teams, the Bruins were mentioned prominently. And then won three of their first four games.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. A.J. Greer had played in fewer than 50 NHL games when he joined the Bruins this season. In four games, he had five points. The plug-and-play nature of the Bruins’ team culture means that players like Greer and Pavel Zacha make immediate impacts.

But the reason they’ve held the fort is an MVP-level performance from David “Contract Year” Pastrnak and the ageless dominance of 37-year-old Bergeron, who are anchoring their own lines. When the reinforcements arrive, they should find the Bruins contending for a playoff spot — and the rest of the league on notice.

Jersey Foul of the Week

From Sunrise, Florida:

Well that’s one way to do it. pic.twitter.com/IVTtR5PcRe

— Armando Velez (@Mandoman12) October 20, 2022

Let’s say you’re a Jonathan Huberdeau fan. Uh-oh, he’s been traded to the Calgary Flames, leaving you with a No. 11 jersey for a player no longer with the Florida Panthers!

But the player the Panthers acquired, Matthew Tkachuk, has decided to wear No. 19 with his new team. What does one do? Purchase a new jersey? Of course not! One gets a Costco-sized amount of electrical tape and a Sharpie and transforms the Jonathan Huberdeau jersey into a Matthew Tkachuk jersey with the subtlety of subway graffiti. A classic Jersey Foul move.

are you kidding me, pou? pic.twitter.com/jXhr9BHT28

— alyssa (@alyssaturnz) October 16, 2022

Marie-Philip Poulin is a human cheat code who haunts my dreams as an American hockey fan. She also did this in the shootout during a PWHPA Dream Gap tour stop in Montreal this week. The best women’s player I’ve ever had the honor of watching.

Winners and losers of the week

Winner: Gritty

Philadelphia sports are basically running the world lately; heck, even the Flyers are competitive. So the NHL’s most famous product outside of the Stanley Cup, Gritty, decided to take a victory lap for the city of Brotherly Love. And sure, the Phillies and Flyers both subsequently lost their games, but Gritty cares not about such things. Gritty lives for the moment.

Loser: Grit

There have been 15 fights in the NHL in the first week of the season, down from 17 fights last season in the same time frame. Outside of Marcus Foligno and Ryan Reaves dropping gloves, I can’t remember any of them. Seven of the fights involved the Flyers, Bruins or Ducks. Times have changed.

Winners: Capped-out teams in 2023-24

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman indicated this week that if the players’ debt to the owners is paid off this season, which is the league’s expectation, the salary cap could jump by upward of $4.5 million in 2023-24, or one entire Shayne Gostisbehere. Congrats to the 2023-24 Golden Knights, who might now have [checks CapFriendly] $4.5 million in open cap space next season.

Loser: Canucks’ leads

The good news: The Vancouver Canucks have set an NHL record this season. The bad news: It’s for being the first team in NHL history to give up four straight multi-goal leads to start the season.

After blowing a multi-goal lead against the Capitals, Boudreau called his team “mentally weak” and said “it did look like we started to… collapse, and we’re afraid to win,” according to Daily Hive. Good times.

Winner: Transparency

If you haven’t read the NHL’s report on diversity and inclusion around the league, it’s worth your time. I saw a lot of reactions that felt the report was restating the obvious, which is that the NHL is a predominantly white league on the ice and behind the scenes. But the work of people like NHL executive Kim Davis is important, because putting those pie charts in front of a room of NHL owners and executives gets them thinking about the changes they can make in their own organizations to foster change.

It doesn’t mean it’ll happen. It doesn’t mean the efforts won’t come off as superficial rather than tangible. But if it means one team realizes it needs to diversify its workforce to better reflect its fan base — or the fan base it wants to have — then this was worth it. It’s a copycat league. Others will follow — especially when it’s established that a diverse audience means a wider audience hungry to buy tickets and trinkets.

Loser: Barriers

That said, the report makes it clear that women and people of color don’t often feel they belong in the NHL behind the scenes. It further pinpoints that problem starting inside the arena, which is why the NHL is creating a fan code of conduct for all 32 teams as it relates to things like racism and misogyny.

“If people heard about a poor reception inside the stadium, they probably aren’t going to want to work for us, right? Everything relates to everything else,” Davis told me.

Agreed, and as hockey fans, we need to better police the abhorrent behavior we witness inside the arena and in other public spaces.

Winner: Good decisions

The cat’s out of the bag on the Edmonton Oilers‘ Reverse Retro jersey, which is running back the unfairly maligned Todd McFarlane-designed “dynamic gear surrounding the oil drop” logo. But they’ve improved it by adding a splash of orange to the middle of the logo. There are a few other nostalgic looks are updated in this year’s crop of Reverse Retro jerseys, but few nail it like this.

Loser: Bad advice

lmao pic.twitter.com/P6uakzn5Vy

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 20, 2022

That’s Jaden Schwartz of the Seattle Kraken offering some advice to his former teammate Vladimir Tarasenko in a game on Wednesday night. He asked Vladdy to “be a passer tonight, eh?”

Well, Tarasenko took his advice. He didn’t score a goal. Instead, he assisted on three of the St. Louis Blues‘ four goals to beat the Kraken, including the primary pass on Justin Faulk‘s game winner. D’oh!

Puck headlines

• The Washington Capitals see some benefit to being the NHL’s second-oldest team. “We’re not necessarily meeting at a sports bar, but we’re meeting to have playdates and hang out.”

• Inside the NHL’s relationship with cannabis. “If in the year 2022, a time in which multi-state operating, international sportsbooks, casinos, and gambling corporations are permitted to buy significant league sports uniform advertising, there is no reason to believe cannabis won’t soon follow suit.”

• Mike Keenan has a new job as the head coach of the Italian men’s national hockey team ahead of them getting smoked like mozzarella in the 2026 Winter Olympics if the NHL shows up this time.

• Good piece on deposed Winnipeg Jets captain Blake Wheeler, including his hidden talent. “He can rap songs we know. And I’ve seen him freestyle a few times, which I don’t have in my bag — I try to stay out of that — but he’s actually quite impressive most of the time.”

• The Calgary Flames are getting a “fresh start” on what’s previously been disastrous arena construction talks with the city.

• For the puck nerds: How to teach a motion-based attack on the power play, from Jack Han.

• Making the case for the Toronto Maple Leafs to trade for Jakob Chychrun. “My guess is if the Leafs make a play for Chychrun, the Coyotes will ask for one of Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren or Topi Niemelä. Since last June’s draft, Arizona GM Bill Armstrong has said he will absorb contracts for assets. To balance the money Arizona would need to take Alex Kerfoot’s remaining $3.5-million contract. And I believe they would.”

From your friends at ESPN

The NHL Rank project for the 2022-23 season revealed the top 100-51 players and then the top 50 players. A tremendous undertaking, and outside of a few quibbles, the list is strong.