The risk of a miscalculation between Western and Chinese warships in the South China Sea is the highest it has ever been, an expert has said.
With so many foreign navies sailing through what they see as international waters near China, the chance of Xi Jinping’s navy firing a misinterpreted warning shot is growing.
Meanwhile, China has for the first time fitted its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with JL-3 missiles thought to have a range of up to 10,000km (6,200 miles) – enough to strike the US mainland from within its own waters.
Washington regards Beijing’s actions in the region as the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security”.
In its latest national defence strategy published in early November, the US department of defence criticised China’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive endeavour to refashion the Indo-Pacific region and the international system to suit its interests and authoritarian preferences”.
Beijing hit out at the report, saying that it “smears” China and vilifies normal military growth.
Ministry spokesperson Tan Kefei, as quoted in the South China Morning Post, said: “The countries that stubbornly prioritise their own interests above anyone else and gang up on an ‘integrated deterrence’ in the Asia Pacific are the real ‘pacing challenge’ to the international system and the region.”
“A strong Chinese army is… also a steadfast force to maintain world and regional peace and stability,” he added.
Risk of armed conflict highest it has ever been, analyst says
“I think the Western powers, the NATO powers, are growing very concerned about what China is doing in this region,” says Ridzwan Rahmat, principal defence analyst for the Janes intelligence agency.
Speaking to Sky News, he said that more and more Western countries are deploying naval forces to the South China Sea – Canada, Germany, France and Australia now among them – and this is raising tensions.
“It has created a form of tinderbox in this part of the world,” he said.
“I think there’s a very, very high chance of a miscalculation from any of these navies.
“So this is something that we are watching very, very closely, because as China grows, as more and more of these naval forces are deploy, chances of a miscalculation are increasing by the year.”
Asked if this risk of a miscalculation was the highest it has ever been, Mr Rahmat said yes.
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‘Change of posture’
The long-range JL-3 missiles now on some of China’s submarines can be launched from underwater, making things even more tricky.
“The problem with submarine launch is that you are not able to detect the submarine,” Mr Rahmat says.
He continued: “When you are not able to detect that point of launch it makes it a lot harder to calculate the possible point of impact and the devastation and the kind of defensive manoeuvres that can be taken to overcome it.”
Mr Rahmat says this development represents a “change of posture” in terms of Chinese naval warfare thinking.